Published
in Planning Quarterly, March 2000, pp.20-22:
Barry Rae & Sonia Anderson
of Barry Rae Transurban Ltd
IWITINIOPOLIS: PAST AND FUTURE URBAN REGIONS
Introduction
As we look into the future, informed by
the past, we need to recognise that urban growth in New Zealand
is concentrated in the northern half of the North Island. A dynamic
urban system in the contiguous regions of Auckland/Waikato/Bay
of Plenty is emerging as the dominant urban region of New Zealand
(Rae:1972). This system was initially based on the connectivity
of Auckland-Hamilton urban areas, and later, on their connectivity
with Tauranga to the east, Rotorua to the south-east and Whangarei
to the north. The scale of future growth of this region will be
highly dependent on how immigration to New Zealand is managed.
Its form will reflect past and current trends for urban nodes
to extend along principal transport routes and coastal edges.
The inevitability of this regional network will be reinforced
by planning intended to relieve stress in the main urban areas
(particularly Auckland), to promote a more balanced and sustainable
urban system supporting a diversity of life styles and cultures,
and to provide a choice of urban environments, while helping to
protect and enhance natural ecosystems.
Past settlement in New Zealand
An
examination of the past provides significant clues for the future.
Pre-European Maori settlement of Aotearoa was concentrated in
the northern half of the North Island – an estimated 80% of the
total population (Cumberland:1949) (Refer Map 1). This
settlement pattern was the result of migration from the north,
climate, suitable conditions for cultivating sub-tropical food
crops, and the availability of other food sources.
The
northern Maori region (Iwitini) was a distinct region differentiated
from areas to the south by its almost continuous settlement system
and its relatively high population density. The larger settlements
were small towns of several thousand people, and in the most populous
areas nucleated settlements occupied almost every hilltop, spur,
or coastal projection. Almost without exception such settlements
were heavily fortified pa, essential features of the “urban”
landscape (Cumberland:1949).
The
tribes of Iwitini were in constant and close contact with
one another. The region was threaded by a network of local tracks,
and main highways followed the northern peninsula, the Waikato
Valley, and the coasts. The local diversity of environment made
for frequent exchange of many commodities, and local specialisation
of craftspeople gave rise to an exchange of high-grade services.
The broken east coast was the scene of regular canoe traffic.
The Tamaki isthmus was probably the most frequented part of Aotearoa,
and the meeting place of the most travelled routes on both land
and sea. (Cumberland: 1949).
Initially
planned European settlement concentrated in the South Island as
a result of the gold rush, the land wars of the North Island,
and the relative ease of farming the open pastoral lands of the
South Island. However, in time European migratory settlement occurred
mainly in the north of the country. This was spread over a large
number of closely spaced settlements, encouraged initially by
the development of the dairy industry, the growth of forest processing
industries, and exploitation of deep water harbours accessible
to world shipping routes. The importance of Iwitini in
this development is confirmed by the fact that over the last 70
years only Auckland/Waikato/Bay of Plenty regions have experienced
population growth at a rate greater than the national average
(Refer Map 2); and over the last 30 years only Northland/Auckland/Waikato/Bay
of Plenty regions (with the exception of Tasman) experienced population
growth greater than the national average. Since 1966 both Auckland
and Bay of Plenty regions grew at approximately twice the national
average rate.
Today, 75% of New Zealand's 3.8 million people live
in the North Island, almost 50% (1.9 million people) live in the
contiguous regions of Northland/Auckland/Waikato/Bay of Plenty,
and 31% (1.2 million people) live in the Auckland region alone.
Map
2 : Regional population
growth above national average 1926-1996.
Future settlement of New Zealand
Land
suitable for intensive urban development comprises 44% of the
whole country. When this land is rated for natural habitability1,
approximately 70% of the total urban-suitable land of above mean
attractiveness is situated in the north island, and 50% is situated
in the Northland/Auckland/Waikato/Bay of Plenty regions (Rae:1972)
(Refer Map 3).
Map
3 : Natural habitability:
Urban-suitable land of above mean attractiveness.
Official
population projections (medium-range estimates) for New Zealand
21 years from now indicate that 80% of the estimated 4.3 million
national population will live in the North Island, with 57% of
the national population (2.5 million) living in the Northland/
Auckland/Waikato/Bay of Plenty regions. Auckland region alone
will house 36% (1.5 million) of the national population (Department
of Statistics:1998).
In
the longer term, major external migrationary pressures on New
Zealand must be assumed in the context of global population growth
and distribution. If today's world population of 6 billion was
evenly spread over world habitability zones with no significant
limitations for extensive habitation(Doxiadis & Papaioannou:1974,
New Zealand would theoretically have a population of 40 million.
Further, in about 100 years time, the world's population is likely
to double. At this time, ecumenopolis (global settlement) will
be emerging which, together with associated open land, will cover
the entire habitable area of the world as a continuous inter-connected
urban system (Doxiadis & Papaioannou:1974). In this global
context, New Zealanders’ current share of the world's habitable
land resources is inequitable and, in the future, likely to be
untenable. New Zealand has the choice of planning for future inevitable
migration in a sustainable manner.
Over
the last 100 years, New Zealand's average annual increase in population
was 1.7 %. Assuming this rate of growth could be sustained in
the future, New Zealand could have a population of 20 million
in 100 years time. Assuming a continuation of past trends of
population concentration, at least 60% of these people are likely
to be in Northland/Auckland/Waikato/Bay of Plenty, in which case
this urban region could be home to 12 million people.
§
past
historical urbanisation trends
§
natural
habitability
§
external
migratory pressures
§
growth
of service and knowledge-based economic activity
§
advances
in communication and transport technology
§
increasing
inter-connectivity of close urban centres.
Map
4 : Iwitiniopolis
The
Auckland-Hamilton corridor will be the most intensive component
of this urban system and the first to develop, as these two largest
urban areas become connected by one-hour travel time by high-speed
rail and motorway, probably within the next 20 years. Urban development
potential exists throughout this corridor, which will offer significant
growth options additional to those within the Auckland region
(Fookes: 1973/1974). Other intensified corridors will evolve later
amongst all of the main urban areas within the region.
The
rest of the country, with the possible exception of Nelson/Tasman/Marlborough
regions, is likely to be devoid of significant urban growth opportunities.
The relatively static urban regions of Wellington, Canterbury
and Otago will be maintained primarily by government services,
tourism and education respectively.
Any
re-introduction of regional development policies in an attempt
to promote significant settlement development in regions other
than Iwitiniopolis is likely, in the long term, to be unsuccessful.
However, substantial social and physical infrastructure will be
needed to accommodate the continuing rapid urbanisation of Iwitiniopolis.
Further, not all towns within Iwitiniopolis have been increasing
their population at rates above the national average, and some
have been shattered by recent economic policies. Wellsford, Meremere,
Te Kauwhata, Huntly, Ngaruawahia, Thames, Te Aroha and Morrinsville
would all benefit from regional development policies which, in
turn, would benefit Iwitiniopolis as a whole.
Large
primary cities elsewhere in the world indicate that they eventually
reach a point where the advantages of economies of scale and access
to high-order facilities and services do not justify the resultant
congestion, pollution and stress. To minimise these effects,
the dominant growth of Auckland could be partly diverted elsewhere
within Iwitiniopolis, while still maintaining good access
to Auckland’s specialised facilities from throughout the urban
region.
A wider regional response
The
anticipated urban system will not recognise local government boundaries.
There is a need for an Iwitiniopolis Growth Forum, with
central government assistance. The current efforts of the Auckland
Regional Growth Forum (Auckland Regional Growth Forum: 1999) ignore
the potential roles of other growth areas within Iwitiniopolis
and within the sphere of influence of Auckland. Ironically, the
maintenance of a tight Auckland metropolitan “limit” endorsed
by the Forum will force development to “jump the fence”, thereby
assisting the formation of Iwitiniopolis.
Throughout Iwitiniopolis, co-ordination and
restructuring of local government, transport providers and national
development agencies will be necessary to integrate issues of
immigration, housing, education, health, employment and transport.
Moreover, the potential of Iwitiniopolis as a dynamic multi-cultural
urban system deserves creative strategic development planning
on a macro scale, addressing broad social, cultural, economic
and environmental issues.
Unlike
many countries, New Zealand has no national urban spatial development
strategy. Without one, Auckland will follow the trend of all
primary cities and will eventually become hopelessly stressed.
A strategy that fully embraces the potential of Iwitiniopolis
would have the following advantages:
§
Efficient use of existing urban resources
§
Provision
for a range of settlement sizes and choice of environments
§
Maximum
opportunities for diversity of life/work styles
§
Promotion
of settlements of specialisation, difference, identity and complementarity,
rather than competition
§
Promotion
of a larger urban system having an international role
§
Provision
for cultural diversity
§
Reduction
of pollution, congestion and urban stress, particularly in Auckland
§
Provision
of access to a full range of urban facilities within the urban
system
§
Provision
of easier access to natural environments.
The
concept of Iwitiniopolis, a multiplicity of connected centres
within a regional urban system of many cultures, could be a sustainable
response for future human settlement of New Zealand.
End Note:
1. Criteria for urban-unsuitable land were: slope/ruggedness, marshes/flood ponding,
surface water, indigenous forests, national parks, exotic forests.
Criteria for natural habitability were: mean hours sunshine, mean
temperatures, number of rainy days, proximity to coast or river,
earthquake hazard, proximity to active volcanoes.
Bibliography:
Auckland
Regional Growth Forum
"Auckland
Regional Growth Strategy: 2050", 1999
Cumberland,
K B
“Aotearoa
Maori: New Zealand about 1780” in Geographical Review, Vol
39, 1949
Department
of Statistics
"Demographic
Trends: Population Projections”, Government Printing, 1998
Doxiadis
C.A & Papaioannou J.G.
"Ecumenopolis",
Athens Centre of Ekistics, 1974
Fookes,
T.W
"The
Auckland-Hamilton Development Corridor", University of Auckland,
1973
Fookes,
T.W
"Overspill
Alternative for South Auckland", Town Planning Quarterly
(NZ) Vol 34, (1973) and Vol 35 (1974)
Rae,
B.J.
"Urban
Development in New Zealand", Athens Centre of Ekistics, 1972
